Performance of major trading countries and regions

China holds a pivotal position in global trade, and maintaining its position as the world's largest trading nation in goods for seven consecutive years is by no means accidental. In 2023, China's total import and export of goods reached 5.94 trillion US dollars, and its share of the international market increased from less than 1% in 1978 to 12.4% in 2023, maintaining its position as the world's largest country in goods trade for seven consecutive years. China is implementing a more proactive opening-up strategy and accelerating the cultivation of new competitive advantages in foreign trade. Currently, it is a major trading partner of over 150 countries and regions.

The "the Belt and Road" initiative has become an important force for China to promote global trade. In the first half of 2024, the trade between China and countries along the "the Belt and Road" will continue to grow, with the trade volume increasing by 3.74% year on year. China's export structure continues to optimize, with mechanical and electrical products accounting for nearly 60% of exports. Although the growth of new energy vehicle exports has slowed down, traditional fuel vehicle exports have grown rapidly. At the same time, China actively explores emerging markets and has seen significant growth in trade with regions such as ASEAN and Latin America.

China continues to open up and connect with the world at a higher level. The negative list for foreign investment access in the national version has been reduced from 93 to 29, a reduction of more than two-thirds. Restrictions on foreign investment access in the manufacturing sector have been completely lifted, and access to service industries such as telecommunications and healthcare has been continuously relaxed. In 2023, China's actual utilization of foreign direct investment reached 163.3 billion US dollars, an increase of 176 times compared to 1983, and the scale has remained world leading for many consecutive years. China continues to create a market-oriented, rule of law, and international first-class business environment, with the scale of two-way investment ranking among the top and both quantity and quality improving. The magnetic attraction of the Chinese market continues to strengthen.

East Asia has shown outstanding performance in global trade and has become a major driving force for trade activities. OECD Chief Economist Lombardy pointed out that China and East Asia will become the main driving forces of global trade. The organization predicts that global trade in goods and services will grow by 2.3% in 2024 and further expand to 3.3% next year, with China and East Asia contributing the most.

In 2020, global trade sharply declined against the backdrop of the pandemic, but East Asia, with strong export growth and an increase in global market share, is expected to become the "locomotive" of global trade recovery. In the fourth quarter of 2020, the import and export trade volume of goods in East Asia increased by about 5% and 12% respectively, while exports of goods from most other regions continued to show a negative growth trend. The effective control of the epidemic and economic recovery in China have played an important supporting role in improving the trade situation in East Asia.

In the first quarter of 2021, global trade experienced a strong recovery, with total trade in goods and services increasing by approximately 10% year-on-year and 4% month on month, slightly higher than pre pandemic levels. The important driving force behind this is the good performance of exports from East Asian economies such as China. Developing countries have played an important role as always, with China, India, and South Africa performing relatively better in trade than other major economies in the first quarter of 2021. Especially in China, its exports not only exceeded the average level in 2020, but also showed strong growth compared to pre pandemic levels. The strong resilience of the economy highlights the importance of the trade recovery of East Asian economies in promoting the trade recovery of developing countries.

1. Europe: Europe occupies an important position in global trade, but also faces some challenges. 2023 is one of the bleakest years in people's memory for world trade, with trade volume and volume decreasing by 5% and 1.2% respectively, and import demand in Europe being particularly weak. The rise in energy prices and inflation have the greatest impact on Europe, and Europe's weakness is the main reason for the decline in world trade.

However, Europe is also actively seeking countermeasures. The EU places greater emphasis on "strategic autonomy" in the face of global challenges. If Trump returns to the White House, it may lead to a further decline in the credibility of the United States' commitment to global issues, and further strengthen the EU's determination for "strategic autonomy", which will bring marginal opportunities for improvement in China Europe economic and trade relations. Since Trump imposed tariffs on China in 2018, the EU's overall dependence on imports from China has shown an upward trend, and the economic and trade relations between China and Europe have become even closer.

2. North America: The North American trading region is dominated by the United States, Canada, and Mexico, and its trade advantage lies in its strong industrial foundation and market vitality. On August 27th local time, the United States and Mexico reached a bilateral trade agreement. If the trade negotiations with Canada are optimistic next month, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which positions the three countries' trade relationship, will be updated.